Archive for 十二月, 2010

Sumpo Food to triple production capacity

Sumpo Food Holdings Ltd, a Fujian province-based chicken meat products supplier, expects to triple its production capacity with fresh capital raised from an initial public offering in Hong Kong to meet the growing demand of consumers and clients.

Sumpo Food, one of the suppliers to Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) and Dicos Fried Chicken on the mainland, said it is current capacity of slaughtering and processing up to 18 million broilers per year has already fallen short of demand from the fast-food restaurants as well as retailers.

“By raising funds from the Hong Kong listing, we are going to establish new breeder farms, hatching facilities as well as new broiler breeding farms to add another 36 million broilers in capacity each year,” Sumpo Chairman Lin Qinglin said at a press conference Wednesday.

Sumpo Food is offering 400 million shares, 10 percent of which will be through a public offering to individual investors with the remaining portion via placement to institutional investors, at a price of HK$0.60 to HK$0.80 per share. Assuming the over-allotment option is not exercised and based on the median offer price of HK$0.70 per share, net proceeds from the shares offer are estimated to be about HK$258 million, according to the term sheet.

Driven by improving living standards and growing income, the mainland market for meat consumption has grown steadily over the years, which leaves great room for the company to tap new business opportunities, said Lin, who noted that the company’s major clients such as KFC have been asking the company to increase the supply of chicken for some time now.

The mainland ranked number one in the world in terms of meat production during the period between 1990 and 2007 according to the China Animal Agriculture Association. In 2008, it imported 799,600 metric tons of chicken products from overseas markets.

Though the market potential is huge, Louis Wong, director of Phillip Securities said it is not easy for chicken breeders to maintain steady profits as the business is prone to factors out of its control such as feed prices, bird flu and pork prices.

Wong cited the example of Hong Kong-based DaChan Food (Asia) Ltd, KFC’s biggest supplier on the mainland, which is in a similar line of business as Sumpo Food and has seen its profit slip since it went public in 2007.

DaChan earned $26.2 million in 2007, but profits shrank to $19.7 million in 2008 and $15.8 million in 2009. According to its interim result this year, profit of the company for the first half further contracted to $6 million. Wong added that it is likely to post another profit decline this year.

According to the track record provided by Sumpo Food, the company’s net profit stood at 44 million yuan, 46 million yuan and 59 million yuan for the three years to 2009. The company earned 22.9 million yuan in the first six months of this year.

China Daily

(HK Edition 12/30/2010 page3)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2010-12/30/content_11773620.htm

City exports step up 16.6% in Nov

City exports step up 16.6% in Nov

But economists note signs of slower growth

Hong Kong’s total exports rose 16.6 percent in November from a year ago, supported by strong demand from regional markets. However, economists noted signs of a slowdown as indicated by the seasonally adjusted three-month figures.

According to figures released by the Census and Statistics Department Tuesday, Hong Kong exports rose 16.6 percent to HK$273.0 billion last month from HK$224.8 billion a year earlier, compared with a year-on-year increase of 13.9 percent in October.

Total imports increased 16.4 percent year-on-year to HK$296.6 billion, leaving a visible trade deficit of HK$23.5 billion.

Exports held up well in November, continuing to show significant year-on-year growth despite the higher base of comparison in the same period last year, a government spokesman said in a statement. This largely reflected strong demand in regional markets, he added.

Total exports to the rest of Asia grew by 17.8 percent in November compared with the same period last year. Increases were noted in most major destinations within the region, in particular the 43.9 percent rise in the city’s exports to Vietnam.

Meanwhile the mainland saw an 18.6 percent rise to HK$142 billion, while Thailand and Malaysia saw increases of 23.2 percent and 20.4 percent respectively.

Although the sustained growth of Asian economies is likely to render continued support to the city’s exports, the spokesman said that the fragile fundamentals of the advanced economies remain a concern.

And the slowdown has been reflected in the seasonally adjusted figures, which decreased by 3.5 percent for the three months ended November compared with the previous three months – the first negative record since October 2009.

“The seasonally adjusted figures for Hong Kong exports have decreased all the way down from the previous peak of 10.9 percent in April, as major economies – especially European countries – have seen no sign of resuscitation,” said Irina Fan, senior economist at Hang Seng Bank.

Although exports to the US have increased 14.9 percent last month, decreases have been registered to several major destinations in Europe, including the UK, Germany and the Netherlands, which were down 8.6 percent, 0.9 percent and 0.5 percent respectively in November.

Fan said that though the unemployment rate in the US remains high, the second round of quantitative easing as well as the tax cut deal initiated by the US government are nevertheless positive news for the city’s exports as the measures will certainly boost domestic demand.

However, as a majority of European countries have announced that they are to cut their government budgets and reduce spending in 2011, Hang Seng’s Fan expects the city’s exports to the euro zone to continue to decline next year.

For the first 11 months in 2010, as a whole, the city’s total exports have risen 23.8 percent over the same period in 2009. Though a slowdown is inevitable, Fan said the bank still predicts that Hong Kong’s exports will see another year of double-digit growth in 2011 – most likely 11 percent.

China Daily

(HK Edition 12/29/2010 page3)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2010-12/29/content_11767832.htm

Automaker H-shares take a dent on Beijing traffic control measures

Automaker H-shares take a dent on Beijing traffic control measures

Cars and vehicles are stuck in traffic on Chang’An Avenue in Beijing. The city’s authorities announced measures Thursday to limit new vehicle registrations, causing a decline in auto sector share prices. Nelson Ching / Bloomberg

Automakers were hit hard Friday as investors dumped their stocks on worries that other cities on the mainland will follow suit after Beijing unveiled measures to limit new car registrations, a move that will effectively hurt car sales.

Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Ltd, the local partner of Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW), dived 7.69 percent to close at HK$5.4 in Hong Kong trading Friday while Dongfeng Motor Group Co, one of the “top four” domestic automakers, slumped 7.75 percent to settle at HK$13.1.

Geely Auto, the listed unit of China’s Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co, dropped 6.3 percent on the same day. Great Wall Motor Co and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co were down 5.22 percent and 4.71 percent, respectively. The sector significantly underperformed compared with the 0.3 percent fall in the bench market Hang Seng Index.

On Thursday, Beijing’s authorities announced measures to limit new vehicle registrations to 240,000 units next year, down about 70 percent from this year’s numbers, in a bid to ease massive traffic jams in the capital city.

“The cap of 240,000 units on new vehicle registration in 2011, compared with car sales of more than 800,000 units this year, suggests that automakers are going to have a hard time in the Beijing market next year,” Kenny Tang, executive director with Redford Securities told China Daily.

The Beijing automobile market accounted for about 6.9 percent of total car sales in China this year, with luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other foreign brands making up the biggest share, Sina.com cited a Morgan Stanley report as saying.

Brilliance China sold 12.7 percent of its cars in Beijing and Dongfeng Motor sold about 7.3 percent, while Geely and Great Wall generated only 2.4 percent and 2.9 percent of their total sales in the city.

“The plunge in shares of Geely and Great Wall, which are less popular in the Beijing market, indicated that investors are concerned about further vehicle controls as traffic chaos is now a huge issue in many Chinese cities,” said Tang.

According to a Goldman Saches research note released Thursday, Beijing’s new vehicle control measures are stricter than expected. It forecasts that the new policy will hurt passenger vehicle sales in the country by around 4.5 percent in 2011.

If the annual growth rate of vehicle sales is maintained at about 10 percent to 15 percent, more mainland cities are also likely to initiate control measures in a bid to contain the soaring number of cars which pollute the air and jam the roads, Morgan Stanley said in the report.

Tang nevertheless is keeping his long-term “overweight” rating on the automobile sector due to its stellar overall growth rate.

“The Central Government strives to boost domestic consumption and the automobile industry has made a tremendous contribution to that effort. Even if car sales are likely to slow down in some big cities, I believe the second and third tier cities will remain buoyant,” Tang added.

In the January to November period of this year, car sales in China rose 34.1 percent year-on-year to a record 16.4 million units – nearly three million more than that in 2009, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

The nation overtook the US last year as the world’s biggest car market with sales surging 45 percent to 13.6 million vehicles in 2009.

China Daily

(HK Edition 12/25/2010 page2)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2010-12/25/content_11753817.htm

Kunlun Energy to acquire more parent gas assets

Kunlun Energy Co, a Hong Kong-based oil producer and gas supplier said that it is to accelerate its business expansion and acquire more gas assets from its parent PetroChina.

The company is now free of any financial pressure and it will consider any promising acquisition opportunities, Kunlun Energy Chairman Li Hualin said after the extraordinary general meeting held Thursday.

“We will continue to purchase gas assets from the parent company and we will consider financing options based upon acquisition opportunities,” Li told media in Hong Kong.

He also said that Kunlun will boost its natural gas supply operations for automobiles in 2011.

Shares of Kunlun closed unchanged at HK$12.22 in Hong Kong trading Thursday. However, the company’s shares have climbed 18.18 percent this year on recent speculation about further acquisitions of assets from its parent.

Kunlun, formerly known as CNPC (Hong Kong) Ltd, is very likely to win the bid for parent PetroChina’s 60 percent stake in PetroChina Beijing Natural Gas Pipeline Co. PetroChina is selling the stake for 18.9 billion yuan via a bidding process under conditions that are specifically favorable to Kunlun Energy, reports said. The bidding process ends today.

In October, Kunlun Energy acquired a 75 percent stake in a liquefied natural gas business in Dalian from PetroChina for 2.01 billion yuan.

PetroChina’s moves to inject gas assets into the Hong Kong-listed unit are part of an apparent strategy to turn Kunlun Energy into the group’s gas flagship while its parent will focus on the oil businesses, said Louis Wong, director of Phillip Securities.

“Investors are optimistic on Kunlun because it is backed by PetroChina,” said Wong. “The natural gas business also shows great promise as the Central Government has committed itself to promoting the use of clean energies.”

Currently relying on coal for approximately 70 percent of its energy consumption, China expects its natural gas usage to account for 9 percent of the nation’s total energy mix by 2020, Zhang Hongtao, chief engineer at the Ministry of Land and Resources said in October.

The country’s natural gas consumption has seen an average annual growth of 16 percent in the past 10 years, said Zhang, but at present natural gas only accounts for 3.8 percent of total energy consumption.

In June, the Central Government increased the wholesale prices of natural gas by around 25 percent and reduced retail rates of refined oil products by about 3 percent.

The National Development and Reform Commission said the adjustment is to curb demand and better allocate resources as China’s natural gas price is significantly lower than that of other fuels.

Kunlun’s first-half profit to June 30 increased nearly fourfold compared with the previous period as net income rose to HK$1.25 billion from HK$316.3 million as crude oil prices made a comeback and sales of natural gas rose.

China Daily

(HK Edition 12/24/2010 page2)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2010-12/24/content_11748000.htm

Li Ka-shing plans city’s first yuan IPO

Reports say tycoon hopes to raise more than 10b yuan in first half of 2011

Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing is preparing what is likely to be the city’s first yuan-denominated initial public offering (IPO) in the first half of next year, according to reports citing people familiar with the matter.

Billionaire Li, chairman of Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd, has hired Citic Securities International Co to lead the sale in a bid to raise more than 10 billion yuan through a real estate investment trust (REIT) backed by the Oriental Plaza development in Beijing, the Hong Kong Economic Times quoted anonymous sources as saying Wednesday. HSBC Holdings plc will help arrange the offering, the sources added.

Cheung Kong and its affiliate Hutchison Whampoa Ltd own 33.4 percent and 18 percent, respectively, of the Oriental Plaza – a large complex which includes hotels, commercial property and shopping malls.

“It would not be surprising if the rumor proves to be true,” said Linus Yip, an analyst at First Shanghai Securities. “If the IPO receives a good response, I believe more companies will follow suit.”

Cheung Kong rose 3.53 percent to HK$120.4 while Hutchison Whampoa declined 0.37 percent to close at HK$80.1 in Hong Kong trading Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Joseph Yam, the former chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) said at a public lecture in the city Wednesday that Hong Kong, as an international finance center, is ready to develop a yuan IPO market.

“The time for yuan-denominated IPOs in Hong Kong is now ripe,” Yam said, adding that supervision will be necessary in order to prevent the yuan becoming a tool to be exploited by international speculators.

Charles Li, chief executive officer of Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd, in October had also expressed a desire to see the first yuan-denominated IPO in the city next year.

Yuan deposits in the city surged by a record 67.8 billion yuan in October to an all-time high of 217.1 billion yuan, according to the HKMA, spurred by anticipation of an appreciating yuan and the mainland’s first interest-rate hike in almost three years.

Nevertheless, Shanghai First’s Yip said that there are still a number of issues to take into account such as the daily cap per person on the physical exchange of the mainland’s currency in the city, which currently stands at no more than 20,000 yuan. He said it could impede investor enthusiasm, even if the city’s initial yuan IPO is deemed a success.

“The liquidity pool of yuan in Hong Kong is still not large enough yet to support a swarm of yuan stocks in the city,” Kelvin Lau, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank told China Daily.

“The first few yuan listings will primarily be seen as tests for the authorities to figure out any underlying problems. The number of yuan-denominated stock sales seen in the city’s bourse will still be limited next year,” he added.

China Daily

(HK Edition 12/23/2010 page2)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2010-12/23/content_11742223.htm

Old industrial buildings find new value in booming market

Old industrial buildings find new value in booming market

The city’s real estate boom this year is giving a boost to industrial buildings as well with total sales reaching HK$23.4 billion as of December 18, data released by Midland IC&I Tuesday showed.

Over the same period, 6,811 registered sales of industrial buildings were recorded, only surpassed by sales of 7,512 sales in 2007.

“Driven by the government’s revitalization policies as well as its plans to convert seven industrial land banks into residential units, the sales of industrial buildings are likely to reach 7,065 totalling HK$24.4 billion by the year-end, exceeding the previous high of HK$22.5 billion in 2007,” said Stanley Chau, sales director at Midland IC&I.

In 2009, Chief Executive Donald Tsang said in his Policy Address that the government planned to release the economic potential of more than 1,000 industrial buildings by encouraging their redevelopment or conversion.

Tsang made the statement to promote what he identified as the city’s six pillar industries in which it held a clear advantage: education services, medical services, testing and certification services, environmental industries, innovation and technology, and cultural and creative industries.

The government promised to provide suitable land and premises to meet the city’s changing economic needs as many industrial buildings are either vacant or under-utilized.

In September 2010, Hong Kong’s Town Planning Board to that end gave the nod to convert nearly 30 hectares of industrial land into residential units, spreading over seven districts in the next several years. It expects the move to provide an additional 22,700 housing units.

Meanwhile, Pierre Wong, chief executive officer of Midland IC&I said the present cooling in Hong Kong’s private property market, is making the city’s industrial buildings a more attractive investment.

After the government imposed heavy stamp duties as part of its anti-speculative measures announced on November 19, Wong said that Midland had received a more-than-expected 120 inquiries on industrial buildings up to December 18.

Since the flipping of private homes collect punitive stamp duties, industrial buildings – which are immune from them – have caught the eye of investors, said Wong.

Low sales prices are another reason why industrial properties have become popular, as more than 80 percent of the transactions are priced below HK$5 million according to the property agency.

“Compared with the overheating real private housing market, Hong Kong’s industrial buildings are still sold at relatively low prices, which is not likely to draw the attention of the government in the near term,” Wong added.

Wong forecast that the transaction volume of industrial buildings in the first half of 2011 will increase by another 20 percent from the same period this year, while sales prices and rents will rise about 8 to 10 percent and 3 to 5 percent respectively.

China Daily

(HK Edition 12/22/2010 page2)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2010-12/22/content_11736415.htm

Chinese sportswear giant Li Ning falls 16%

Chinese sportswear giant Li Ning falls 16%

The Li-Ning brand logo is displayed outside one of the company’s stores in Beijing. The company’s share closed down 15.95 percent Monday at HK$17.86 on news that its orders for the second quarter of 2011 were down. Bernardo De Niz / Bloomberg

Chinese sportswear maker Li Ning Co plunged almost 16 percent in Hong Kong trading Monday – its biggest-ever drop – after announcing that its orders have slowed and its costs are rising.

Li Ning’s closed down 15.95 percent at HK$17.86 from HK$21.25.

Li Ning said on its website Friday evening that its year-on-year orders for apparel products and footwear for the second quarter of 2011 were down 7 percent and 8 percent respectively.

Zhang Zhiyong, the company’s chief executive officer, said that Li Ning’s growth model has been heavily reliant on store openings by its subdistributors. And given that operating costs at the retail level are escalating rapidly, this model is no longer sustainable and the company has set conservative growth targets for next year, he added.

“We are of the view that the retail environment for the sporting goods industry next year will face heavy pressure,” said Zhang.

Total order value for the second quarter next year is flat compared with the same period last year after it lifted its average retail prices for footwear and apparel by more than 8 percent, the company said.

“Taking into account the impact of a 3 percent higher wholesale discount (to the distributors), total order value in sell-in terms declined by 6 percent compared to the same period last year – its first volume decline since 2008,” Joyce Jia, an analyst with SWS Research wrote in a report released Monday.

Meanwhile, Li Ning’s mainland competitors listed in the city earlier reported healthy growth in their orders for the second quarters of 2011.

Anta Sports Products Co announced a 21 percent year-on-year increase in orders while Xtep International Holdings Ltd and Peak Sport Products Co saw rises of 25 percent and 24 percent, respectively.

Competition for Li Ning in 2011 will become even tougher in the mid-range sportswear market, as Li Ning faces competition from both domestic and international brands, said Jia. She added that after a two-year consolidation of their retail channels, Nike and Adidas are now back on the scene and intend to expand their mainland market presence next year.

“On one hand Li Ning is offering more discounts to its wholesale distributors, but on the other hand more of them are losing confidence in the company,” Core Pacific-Yamaichi analyst Bill Chen told China Daily.

“Li Ning positions itself as a mid-to-high end sportswear maker, but it has lost the second and third-tier markets to Anta and Xtep because of its high prices, and the high-end consumers because of popularity.”

Chen said he doesn’t expect any miracles from Li Ning in the near term as the company continues to lose market share.

Its order value for the first quarter of 2011 was also low compared with other players, which increased 12 percent year-on-year while Anta’s rose 21 percent and Xtep’s climbed 23 percent.

Li Ning has lost more than 39 percent of its share price value this year compared with its closing price of HK$29.5 on December 31, 2009.

China Daily

(HK Edition 12/21/2010 page3)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2010-12/21/content_11730365.htm

Huang’s representatives appointed to Gome board

Huang's representatives appointed to Gome board

A man walks on a pedestrian bridge in front of a branch of Gome. The company’s shareholders agreed Friday to let Huang Guangyu’s corporate lawyer and sister join its board. Liu Jin / AFP

Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings Ltd, China’s second-biggest electronics retailer, said the company’s shareholders have approved the appointment of jailed founder Huang Guangyu’s representatives to the company’s board, a move which may end the long-running boardroom battle between management and the company’s largest shareholder.

Shareholders agreed that Zou Xiaochun, Huang’s corporate lawyer, should join Gome’s board as an executive director with immediate effect. They also approved the appointment of Huang Yanhong, Huang’s sister, as a non-executive director, the company said in a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange Friday.

It also said that the board will expand to 13 directors from the current 11.

“We believe good corporate governance does not exclude big shareholders on the board,” Zou said after the extraordinary general meeting Friday.

Huang Guangyu, formerly named as the mainland’s richest man by Forbes magazine, resigned from the board in 2009 after a mainland court sentenced him to 14 years in prison for bribery, insider trading and illegally buying foreign currency.

The jailed billionaire still holds a stake of approximately 32.5 percent in Gome, the largest in the company, and has continued to battle from behind bars for control of the company he founded in 1987.

However, his bid to regain control of the company’s management in September failed after shareholders voted against an attempt to sack company chairman Chen Xiao and replace him with Huang Yanhong.

Investors became concerned in the aftermath of the September vote after Huang Guangyu threatened to cut ties between his 376 privately owned stores and the listed company.

Huang's representatives appointed to Gome board

“We do not think that corporate governance uncertainty has been completely removed at Gome with Huang remaining the largest shareholder, but it is a strong indication that both sides are now more willing to work together to resolve the issues through dialogue and negotiations,” said CCB International analyst Forrest Chan in a report released Friday.

Shares of the Beijing-based Gome surged 8 percent to close at HK$3.08 in Hong Kong trading Friday.

“The appointment is set to conclude the Gome saga and the former Chinese No 1 electrical appliances retailer can finally concentrate on its business operations,” Kenny Tang, an analyst with Redford Securities, told China Daily.

Tensions between the management team and Huang Guangyu have affected the company’s fundamentals and have caused it to lag behind its closest competitor, Suning Appliances, Tang added.

For the first three quarters, Gome’s revenue increased 18.6 percent year-on-year to 37.27 billion yuan while net profit rose 49 percent to 1.44 billion yuan from a year earlier.

Suning, on the other hand, reaped 54.3 billion in revenue and 2.83 billion in net profit through the first nine months, representing year-on-year increases of 43.6 percent and of 30.6 percent, respectively, almost double the profit of Gome during the same period.

China Daily

(HK Edition 12/18/2010 page2)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2010-12/18/content_11721067.htm

City’s unemployment rate falls slightly in Nov

City's unemployment rate falls slightly in Nov

The city’s unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent for the three months ended November from 4.2 percent in the previous period, the lowest since January 2009 as total employment rose for a sixth consecutive month and surpassed its 2008 pre-financial crisis peak, the government said Thursday.

As many as 58,500 jobs were created in the past six months and the number of unemployed people fell notably to 143,300 as of the end of November, from the previous 153,200, hitting the lowest level in almost two years, according to the city’s Census and Statistics Department.

“Thanks to the sustained economic growth and job creation, total employment increased for the sixth consecutive month to an all-time high of 3.54 million,” said Matthew Cheung Kin-chung, the secretary for labor and welfare.

The underemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.9 percent between the September and November period from the previous three months.

New jobs were mainly seen in cleaning, hotels, warehousing and support activities for transportation sectors.

Cheung expects the unemployment rate to remain at its currently low level as the seasonal upsurge in business activities in the run-up to the upcoming festivals will create more positions and help absorb job hunters.

“Employers will continue hiring in the coming months as they try to meet the strength of incoming new orders. With the seasonal holidays around the corner, household confidence and spending look set to perk up further into the New Year,” Donna Kwok, economist for Greater China at HSBC wrote in a report.

External demand is not the only driver of Hong Kong’s job creation and wage growth recovery, as Kwok said the contribution of local demand has also established roots of its own, which is enough to keep things going even if global trade activity dips slightly next year.

“The city’s jobless rate is expected to wind up by 4 percent next February when the Chinese traditional Lunar New Year ends. But it is likely to rebound slightly in the second quarter when the city’s minimum wage ordinance starts taking effect,” Irina Fan, senior economist from Hang Seng Bank said.

Hong Kong’s first minimum wage rate, set at HK$28 per hour will take effect on May 1 next year and it will benefit the city’s 314,600 or 11.3 percent low-paid employees who mainly serve in the catering, cleaning, estate security and retail trades according to government data.

Fan, nevertheless, estimates the impact of the increased rate on Hong Kong’s overall unemployment rate to be relatively mild, particularly in view of the improving economic and labor market conditions.

“Hong Kong’s strong economic momentum has well supported the city’s job market recovery over the year. Since a continued improving economy is well expected for next year, Hong Kong’s unemployment rate will remain stable in 2011,” Fan added.

China Daily

(HK Edition 12/17/2010 page2)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2010-12/17/content_11715325.htm

CCBIS sees ample upside for HSI, HSCEI in 2011

CCB International Securities (CCBIS) sees strong upward momentum in the Hang Seng Index (HSI) next year as the local stock market has reentered an attractive zone in terms of expected investment return.

According to its 2011 sector outlook on China’s economy released by CCBIS Tuesday, the yield spread of returns from investment in the city’s equity market and the 10-year US bond has exceeded 4 percent – the aforementioned attractive zone, which has always triggered more fund flows and buying interest in the city’s equity market since 1993.

“Since money is moving away from bonds, I believe we will see the best returns in the stock market next year,” said Peter So, managing director and co-head of research at the bank.

An expanding deposit base and the city’s low interest rate environment also provides incentives for investors to move funds out of deposits and into alternative investments, according to So.

So said the bank expects the HSI and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) to reach 28,000 and 16,500 by the end of 2011. The projection means a 19.5 percent gain in the HSI and a 28.2 percent gain on HSCEI from current levels. The HSI and HSCEI closed at 23,431 and 12,865 respectively Tuesday.

He also forecast that H-shares will outperform A-shares next year as Hong Kong’s interest rates will remain largely flat in 2011 while the People’s Bank of China is expected to raise interest rates on the mainland several times next year.

“Given rising inflation and the pressure to manage liquidity, we expect greater tightening measures in 2011, including two 50 basis points-reserve requirement ratio (RRR) hikes and five interest rates hikes for a total of 125 basis points in 2011,” said Banny Lam, CCBIS economist.

Robust economic growth in Hong Kong and the mainland will also support solid performances by Hong Kong-listed mainland enterprises, which account for about 50 percent of the total capitalization of the local stock market, according to the outlook report.

CCBIS forecasts that Hong Kong will achieve 5.7 percent year-on-year economic growth in 2011 following projected 6.6 percent growth this year. It expects gross domestic product (GDP) growth on the mainland will reach 9.5 percent next year.

Also on Tuesday, Timothy Bond, head of emerging Asia economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicted that the mainland’s GDP growth will grow at a high single-digit pace of 9.1 percent in 2011 while inflation could also rise to around 4.5 percent.

“We favor stocks of enterprises with exposure to second- and third-tier cities on the mainland next year as urbanization in the mainland’s central and western provinces will boost income growth, infrastructure investment, property development as well as consumption,” said CCBIS’ So.

He also expects mergers and acquisitions to boom in 2011, accelerating the emergence of a select few dominant players with better pricing power.

China Daily

(HK Edition 12/15/2010 page2)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2010-12/15/content_11702568.htm