Archive for 二月, 2011

PBoC move to have little impact on banks

PBoC move to have little impact on banks

Analysts said there would be little impact on the earnings of mainland banks after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) on Tuesday raised interest rates for the third time since mid-October.

Effective Feb 9, the benchmark one-year lending rate was raised 25 basis points (bps) to 6.06 percent. One-year deposit rates, meanwhile, were also raised 25 bps to 3 percent.

However, overall deposit rates were raised by an average 34.2 bps compared with the 23.6 bps hike in loan rates, as the central bank this time lifted the deposit rates of longer maturities by 30 to 45 bps in comparison with the 20 to 25 bps hike seen in longer-term loan rates. The bank also lifted current deposit rates by only 4 bps.

And unlike the previous two rate hikes, which were generally favorable to banks, the bigger increase in deposit rates this time compared with that in loan rates will inevitably eat into banks’ earnings, said Paul Lee, an analyst with Taifook Securities.

“Moreover, with the disparity between current deposits and time deposits widening, more people are expected to shift their current deposits to time deposits for better income, which will also eat into banks’ profit margins,” said Lee.

A Goldman Sachs report released Wednesday also held a neutral viewpoint on the impact of the rate hike on banks, particularly big lenders such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank Corp and Agricultural Bank of China due to their low loan/deposit ratio and higher proportion of current deposits.

Nevertheless, Goldman reckons that shareholding banks such as China Minsheng Banking Corp could see a modest increase in their net interest margin due to the latest rate hike, given their higher loan/deposit ratios and a higher proportion of short-term loans or larger inter-bank lending exposure.

Deposit migration will be modest rather than sharp, as five-year deposit rates of 5 percent versus the estimated 5.1 percent year-on-year inflation hike is still not attractive, the report said.

Lee added that mainland insurers will reap the benefits from the third rate hike – just as it has done before.

“Rate hikes are always good news to the insurers,” said Lee. “Their major investments are in time deposits and short-term bonds, and lifting interest rates will help the insurers earn higher reinvestment yields,” Lee added.

A JPMorgan report released the same day also commented that the latest rate hike should help alleviate some of the selling pressures in the insurance sector driven by concerns of a potential slowdown of bancassurance sales following the introduction of new regulations last year.

China Daily

(HK Edition 02/10/2011 page2)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2011-02/10/content_11973026.htm

Analysts doubt incoming policies will temper city’s property fever

Analysts doubt incoming policies will temper city's property fever

John Tsang to announce plans for 30,000 new housing units, reports say

The measures that Financial Secretary John Tsang is expected to unveil in his budget speech later this month to boost home supply in the city is unlikely to reverse the trend of rising home prices, analysts believe.

Tsang is to announce in his budget speech on Feb 23 plans to provide up to 30,000 new apartments in 2011 by increasing land supply, local Chinese-language media said Tuesday, citing unidentified sources.

The government will announce that as many as 10 sites are to be put under the hammer in the coming fiscal year, the sources added.

The government is also to announce plans for more frequent auctions of residential sites through its own initiatives rather than on applications by developers. It will also require developers to provide more small and medium-sized flats in their new development projects to ensure a steady supply of affordable apartments.

However, Nicole Wong, regional head of property research at investment bank CLSA, doesn’t believe the plans will have much of an impact on property prices.

“The completion of residential construction is also two or three years behind land sales,” she said. “As economic uncertainty still looms, it is not likely that the government will increase land supply vigorously.”

To cool the city’s red-hot property market, the Hong Kong government initiated a series of measures throughout 2010, including imposing heavy stamp duties and lifting down payments on some transactions.

Hong Kong’s home prices, nevertheless, have soared more than 55 percent since the beginning of 2009, according to data compiled by the city realtor Centaline Property Agency Ltd.

With home prices becoming more unaffordable for many of the city’s families, Chief Executive Donald Tsang said during his Policy Address in October that the government will boost land supply in the next 10 years to ensure the supply of 20,000 apartments annually.

In late December, the government also announced it was selling a pilot residential project at a site in Yuen Long in the New Territories. It clearly specified the minimum number of units and unit sizes in the sales condition, part of the government’s promise to provide more first-hand small and medium flats in the city.

“The Hong Kong government is determined to boost land supply and stabilize home prices through balancing supply and demand, but it should be careful in restraining the construction of large-sized units, since it is this type of home currently in short supply – particularly in the urban districts – rather than small and medium-sized apartments,” said Albert Wong, senior executive director at Midland Holdings.

He said that as the current economic climate is creating public demand for large units, sparse supply will inevitably push up the prices of large units further. He worries that this may result in an even more unbalanced situation for the city’s property market.

CLSA’s Nicole Wong agreed. She said that even if Financial Secretary John Tsang announces plans to make more residential land available for sale in the coming fiscal year – and developers are required to provide a large number of less profitable small and medium-sized apartments in the new projects – they may very well take a pass on the land auctions.

Nicole Wong projects the city’s home prices to climb no more than 15 percent this year compared with the 20 percent increase seen in 2010. Midland’s Albert Wong, on the other hand, said the steady upward trend in home prices is irreversible in the current buoyant economy. He forecast an 11 percent rise in home prices in the city this year.

China Daily

(HK Edition 02/09/2011 page2)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2011-02/09/content_11965470.htm

CGSE applies a golden touch to the yuan

CGSE applies a golden touch to the yuan

Gold bars are displayed at the Worldwide Gold Bars Exhibition. The city’s bullion exchange plans to launch a yuan-denominated gold contract. Haruyoshi Yamaguchi / Bloomberg

Local bullion exchange to launch yuan gold exchange contract as early as March

The Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society (CGSE), Hong Kong’s century-old bullion exchange, said it will launch the first yuan-denominated gold exchange contract in the city as early as March this year.

Products in the first batch will be 1-kilogram and 3-kilogram gold bullions, Haywood Cheung, president of the CGSE told reporters during a media briefing on Monday.

Among the 171 member firms within the exchange, over one-third have expressed interest in participating, according to Cheung.

“Yuan-settled gold trading is likely to account for 20 to 30 percent of the total daily turnover in the city within six months, and some 30 percent of the deals are expected to be from mainland customers,” Cheung added.

Gold prices rose almost 30 percent in 2010, an unprecedented tenth consecutive annual gain due to a combination of a weaker US dollar and global economic uncertainty, according to a Dec 31 report by Reuters.

“Investors in the city are interested in yuan-denominated gold as the market is buoyant and people are expecting a steady appreciation of the yuan in the long run,” said Anthony Au, a manager with OSK Futures Hong Kong.

Au expects mainland investors to make up more than half of the total number of gold investors in Hong Kong engaging in yuan-settled trading. He says that this is because gold trading in the city is more transparent – in terms of quality and quoted price – than the mainland.

According to information compiled by India-based website Commodity Online, gold was still trading below $300 an ounce in 2001, but the price skyrocketed to $518 and $838 by year-end 2005 and 2007, respectively.

Prices climbed further to $1,400 an ounce last year. Gold was trading at $1,347.20 an ounce in London at press time Monday.

As Cheung believes gold price fundamentals are still sound, he forecasts that it will stabilize in a price range between $1,250 and $1,350 an ounce this year.

He added that if the gold price reaches $1,500 an ounce this year, it will have an opportunity to challenge $1,650 as the cyclical bull market in precious metals is expected to continue until 2015.

According to a December report in the Financial Times, Hong Kong is the world’s third-largest gold trading hub. With demand for the yellow metal from the mainland remaining strong, the city’s influence in global gold markets could still rise further.

In September 2010, Cheung had indicated the necessity of launching a yuan-denominated gold trading product in the city during an interview with Hong Kong Jewellery magazine.

He added such a launch would simultaneously strengthen Hong Kong’s status as an offshore yuan clearing center and as a Chinese gold market.

China Daily

(HK Edition 02/08/2011 page3)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2011-02/08/content_11963400.htm

Shopping losing its sheen in HK

Shopping losing its sheen in HK

Shoppers browse cameras on display at an electronics store in Hong Kong. While many consumers from the mainland perceive Hong Kong as a shopping paradise, the disparity in prices has steadily gotten smaller, with many product categories priced competitively on the mainland. Photos by Ding Ding / For China Daily

Expensive price tags on most goods prompt buyers to scout for deals closer to home, reports Li Tao in Hong Kong

Newly married Shi Xiaoxiao from Beijing planned to ask a former classmate, now working in Hong Kong, to buy and send her a mobile phone. Shi thought it would make a great New Year gift for her husband, but dropped the idea when she learned the price.

The Nokia C7, one of the most popular mobile phone models around these days, is selling for HK$3288 ($422) at large electronic appliances shops, such as Broadway and Fortress, in Hong Kong. In Beijing, where Xiao lives, the same phone sells for only around 2650 yuan ($403) at many stores and comes with an invoice and a one-year warranty.

Shi is not the only one who had pinned their hopes on the shopping paradise of Hong Kong, just to turn away in disappointment.

Duan Jian, an SLR camera enthusiast from Shenzhen, saved up money to buy the Canon EOS-60D kit.

But when he saw the price tag of HK$10,980 at a Hong Kong appliances store, he thought it was a mistake.

“As far as I recall, this camera is priced at around 9,000 yuan in Shenzhen. I came to Hong Kong hoping to get a good bargain, but the outcome was rather disappointing, and also surprising,” Duan told China Daily.

On Dangdang.com, one of the largest e-commerce retailers on the mainland, the Nokia C7 mobile phone is priced at 2680 yuan, while on 360buy.com’s Jingdong Mall, another online retailer, the Canon EOS-60D camera, is sold for about 8,800 yuan.

On Taobao.com, China’s largest Internet consumer-to-consumer (C2C) retail portal, there are even more competitive prices on products.

But consumers who make C2C purchases also face some risk that the goods they purchase may not be authentic. Shi said she was surprised that electronic goods sold in Hong Kong have lost their competitive edge in pricing.

“I used to study in Hong Kong and always believed that everything sold there is cheaper, since it is a duty-free city,” Shi said.

Some Internet users also have complained about their experiences. They too had faith that Hong Kong’s prices were lower. They learned, however, that mobile phones, cameras and even laptops purchased in Hong Kong were more expensive than what the items would have cost had they been purchased in local shops.

Irina Fan, a senior economist with Hang Seng Bank, said it was surprising that mainland consumers are complaining about the city’s prices.

“All I’ve heard is that more and more mainlanders these days are rushing to the city to purchase all kinds of daily necessities, such as milk powder,” said Fan.

“I believe many new products are launched earlier in Hong Kong and the prices are also competitive due to the tax incentives in the city and a weaker Hong Kong dollar,” Fan said.

Although Hong Kong is still a shopping destination for tourists, particularly those from the mainland, it is also true that the city is not selling everything at the best prices, especially for electronic products.

A mainland blogger on his webpage advises consumers considering buying goods in Hong Kong to check to see if there are better prices available on the mainland before making the trek to Hong Kong.

“Since rental and labor costs in Hong Kong are much higher, it is understandable that not everything sold there will be cheap,” the blogger wrote.

He added that clothes, cosmetics and luxury items may still be cheaper in Hong Kong but gold products, jewelry and electronic goods, are not necessarily good bargains – though Hong Kong may have newer models and better designs.

Mo Pak-hung, an associate professor of economics at Hong Kong Baptist University, said there is also a possibility that electronic products, even though carrying the same brand name and model number, have different manufacturing origins and hence have pricing disparities.

“Hong Kong is a mature shopping center for tourists, where people can get almost everything they want at one time, which saves on cost. Coupled with the high rental and labor costs however, it is possible that not everything sold in the city is at the most desirable prices,” Mo said.

Since consumers generally place more confidence on products sold in Hong Kong, many of them may not really mind higher prices as long as they have a pleasant shopping experience here, Mo added.

However, a pleasant shopping in Hong Kong may mean additional costs to mainland residents on the way back home.

According to the General Administration of Customs, goods worth 5,000 yuan or less, plus reasonable quantities of products brought in for personal use, are exempt from border taxes.

But 20 categories – including phones and computers – are still subject to taxes, even if intended for personal use.

Chen Shuchun, an English teacher from Hangzhou, said Apple Inc’s products in Hong Kong are still much cheaper than those on the mainland with most computers in Hong Kong priced lower by 500 to 600 yuan.

“But I won’t risk it now since customs has started taxing goods bought from outside the border,” said Chen.

Kenny He, a high school student from Hangzhou, said on each of his four previous journeys to Hong Kong, he would bring back electronic products for himself or friends, including digital cameras, Apple products and other electronic devices.

“Prices of electronic products in Hong Kong are still attractive, though not as much as before,” He said.

“I have never had any trouble going through customs and have never been told to pay extra taxes for electronic devices.”

Shopping losing its sheen in HK

A cosmetics store with imported products in Hong Kong.

Shopping losing its sheen in HK

Tour groups routinely come from the mainland on shopping excursions.

Shopping losing its sheen in HK

When abroad, many mainland tourists stock up on basic goods, such as milk powder.

(China Daily 02/07/2011 page8)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-02/07/content_11961764.htm