LI, Tao @ Hong Kong

A view of Stonecutters Bridge from the Modern Terminals area of the Hong Kong container port. The city’s exports rose to HK$227.8 billion last month compared with HK$182.5 billion a year earlier. Daniel J. Groshong / Bloomberg

Govt says figures supported by strong demand from regional markets

Hong Kong’s total exports unexpectedly surged 24.9 percent in February from a year ago, supported by strong demand from regional markets.

According to figures released by the Census and Statistics Department on Thursday, the city’s exports rose to HK$227.8 billion last month from HK$182.5 billion a year earlier, compared with a year-on-year increase of 27.6 percent in January.

It beat the 10.3 percent median estimate of 12 economists in a Bloomberg survey, where not even one of them had forecast such a large gain.

Meanwhile, total imports increased 25.2 percent year-on-year to HK$253.0 billion from HK$202.1 billion in 2010, leaving a visible trade deficit of HK$25.1 billion, according to the government.

The difference in the timing of the lunar new year can distort trade figures notably. Combining January and February figures as a way of neutralizing the volatility, the value of total exports of goods nevertheless rose by 26.4 percent while imports grew by 21.7 percent over the same period in 2010, according to the government.

Merchandise exports remained strong in the first two months of 2011, with the Asian markets continuing to be the main growth driver, a government spokesman said.

Total exports to Asia grew by 33.0 percent in February compared with the same period last year, with a 57.6 percent rise to Vietnam, along with 43.6 percent and 40.7 percent increases to India and Thailand respectively.

The mainland also saw a 37.7 percent rise to HK$126.7 billion last month.

However, although increases in exports were seen to most major destinations in other regions – including Germany which recorded a 10.4 percent rise – decreases were also registered, in particular to the United Kingdom and the United States where exports were down by 14.8 percent and 4.4 percent respectively.

Hong Kong’s exports should continue to benefit from the vibrant economic conditions in Asia and further recovery in the US and European Union, said the government spokesman.

But he also said that uncertainties in the external environment would remain, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and North Africa as well as possible repercussions from the earthquake in Japan.

Paul Tang, chief economist with Bank of East Asia, said the outstanding February export figures showed that there was a strong regional economic performance in tandem with global economic recovery.

He nevertheless projected that exports are like to see a slowdown by May, when Japan’s devastating earthquake will start to have an effect on the figures.

“Hong Kong’s exports to Japan account for about 4.2 percent of its total value and imports scores 9.2 percent. The earthquake impact will be notable and it will depend on how long Japan takes to recover from the disaster,” said Tang.

China Daily

(HK Edition 03/25/2011 page2)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2011-03/25/content_12224364.htm