Archive for 六月, 2011

Yurun shares plunge amid talk of Muddy Waters report

Yurun shares plunge amid talk of Muddy Waters report

Meat producer falls 19.8 percent as short sellers cash in

China Yurun Food Group Ltd said it is not aware of any reason for the 20 percent plunge in its share price during Monday’s trading in Hong Kong.

However, Asia-focused investment bank Mirae Asset Securities said in a note released the same day that markets were betting the company would be the target of the next Muddy Waters report. The company also reiterated its “reduce” call on Yurun, partly on potential government intervention to stem pork price increases.

Muddy Water has denied the rumor, however. On Monday, Muddy Waters research director Carson Block told Reuters in an e-mail that the rumors weren’t in the company’s interests and that investors should be “wary” of them.

“We take pains to keep our research activities confidential, and a widespread market rumor would either represent a significant failure on our part, or is false,” Block wrote.

Shares of Nanjing-based Yurun, one of the biggest meat producers in the country, took a heavy blow on Monday. It tumbled as much as 21 percent before closing down 19.8 percent at HK$20.60 amid worries about government moves to curb inflation.

Turnover in Yurun’s shares surged on Monday with over 11 times its average 30-day volume changing hands. Short-selling was 17 percent of the turnover, making it the second-most shorted stock in value for the second successive trading session, rare for a small-cap.

Bearish bets have picked up steam this past week lifting the average daily shorted volume for June to 28.6 percent of turnover compared with about 9 percent for the Hong Kong market. And according to Bloomberg data, the ratio reached 55 percent during one trading day last week.

The company was “not aware of any reason for such decrease in the price and increase in the trading volume”, Yurun said in a statement filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday evening, adding that its business operation remains sound.

Yurun said its revenue for the period to end-May posted significant growth from a year ago due to higher hog prices and a bigger slaughtering volume.

The gross profit margin for the period declined slightly year-on-year due mainly to the faster growth in the upstream slaughtering business, which has a lower gross profit margin compared with the downstream meat processing business, it noted.

Yurun is facing pressure from surging pork prices, which will erode the profit margins, mainland finance news portal JRJ.com reported on Monday, without identifying the source.

According to a statement on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics on June 24, the price of marbled pork meat on the mainland rose 4.3 percent to 28.20 yuan a kilogram in the 10 days from June 11 to June 20, compared with the previous 10 days.

However, the “inflation-eroding-profit” explanation did not convince Vivien Chan, an analyst with Sinopac Securities, as the price pressure on the mainland has been present for quite some time.

The company encountered a very similar situation in 2007 and 2008 when pork prices rose dramatically, but its shares had never traded like today, said Chan.

“Apparently fundamental problems could not explain the slump in Yurun’s share price since last Friday,” Chan added.

Since June 23, shares of Yurun decreased more than 26 percent in just three days. Local reports on Friday said some hedge funds from the US may have built short positions on the stock.

“Compared with the inflation pressure conjecture, the short-selling story seems to be more convincing to me at least, the data told me so,” said one Hong Kong-based analyst, who declined to give a name.

Whenever a stock plummets in the markets, rumors of various versions will pop out and it may not be easy to identify the truth, said Linus Yip, a strategist with First Shanghai Securities.

“Yurun encountered some short selling activities when it was trading around HK$27 to HK$28 per share recently, which may exacerbate the volatility in its share price this time,” said Yip.

Shares of Toronto-listed Sino-Forest Corp have plunged more than 85 percent this month, following accusations of fraud leveled by Hong Kong-based short-seller Carson Block and his firm Muddy Waters.

Shares of a number of overseas-listed mainland companies, especially those in North America, have plunged substantially recently after they’ve been accused of fraud in accounting practices by Muddy Waters.

Reuters contributed to this story.

litao@chinadailyhk.com

China Daily

(HK Edition 06/28/2011 page2)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2011-06/28/content_12788670.htm

2011
06/28
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home truths

Home truths

Although there are many reasons why mainlanders want to buy homes in the city, it is clear that the property market is a favorite investment. Li Tao reports.

Brian Guo, a mainland-born lawyer who has been practicing in Hong Kong for more than three years, made an important decision late last month – buying a home of his own in Hong Kong.

Once he saw the price tag of HK$3.25 million on the eight year-old 500 square foot flat, which is located just 10 minutes away from two MTR stations in west Kowloon, the 29-year-old bachelor said he made up his mind and paid the HK$20,000 initial deposit immediately.

Guo said there were a number of factors at play that convinced him that the deal was a good one.

Not only did the bank grant him a favorable mortgage rate compared with the market, he only has to pay around HK$10,000 to the bank every month for the next 30 years – as long as the interest rate remains unchanged.

“Home prices in big cities such as Shanghai and Beijing on the mainland are also rather expensive these days. To me, the price of a flat in this condition in Hong Kong is rather surprising,” said Guo.

“People told me Hong Kong’s home prices are likely to drop by about 20 to 30 percent in the next two years. Since I am buying the apartment for personal use, price changes do not affect me that much,” he added.

Guo is just one of an enormous number of mainland home buyers in Hong Kong these days. Though the reasons for why they may want to own a house in the city varies from person to person, it is clear that the property market is one of the favorite and most popular forms of investment.

According to data provided by investment bank CLSA, mainland buyers now constitute 40 percent of all transactions in the city for the launch of new residential projects of HK$12 million and above. And for units priced below that amount, they are still snapping up a sizeable 22 percent of them.

And when it comes to the sales of second-hand homes in the city, mainland buyers are not only active in the market but breaking records.

This May, local reports said a 28-year-old woman from Guangdong province bought one of the most expensive apartments in Hong Kong – a 7,747 square foot unit overlooking Victoria Harbour that cost a cool HK$345 million.

Hong Kong’s home prices have been rising at a rate of 2 percent per month over the past 30 months, driven by growing wealth on the mainland.

According to Centaline Property Agency Ltd, Hong Kong’s residential prices have surged more than 70 percent since the beginning of 2009, surpassing the previous peak of 1997 when the city’s property bubble burst in the wake of the Asian financial crisis.

Surging rents in Hong Kong may have also helped convince investors to enter the market as well, according to Thomas Lu, a property analyst at real estate broker Professional Properties. As long as you can afford the down payment, the monthly income you receive in rent from leasing the property can cover the mortgage.

In Guo’s case, Lu reckoned that his flat could fetch a rent in the range of HK$12,000 to HK$13,000 a month, well above his mortgage.

Moreover, with the Hong Kong dollar pegged to the US dollar and mortgage rates remaining at record-low rates since 2008, it makes it far cheaper for mainland investor to take out a mortgage in the city.

In his case, Guo has to pay a bit less than HK$10,000 to the bank each month for the HK$2.93 million he borrowed to buy his flat in the city. But on the mainland, where the central government has raised interest rates several times in the past year to combat inflation, he would have to pay 19,100 yuan each month for a loan of 2.93 million yuan over 30 years – almost double.

“Mainland investors owning properties in Hong Kong is not just about winning admiration these days,” said Nicole Wong, regional head of property research at CLSA. “The yuan’s appreciation and government restrictions on the property sector have driven more mainland investors to Hong Kong where they expect some notable returns.”

Though a research report released by Barclays Capital Asia in April forecast that the city’s average home prices will fall as much as 30 percent as banks increase their mortgage rates, most property analysts in Hong Kong, including Wong, see less risk of a price correction in the short term but rather growing at a more moderate rate.

Despite recent government warnings about the affordability ratio – a measure of mortgage installments relative to household incomes – noting they will climb notably if banks raise their interest rates, Lu said that this is not the problem it was during 1997. This time the government has raised down-payment ratios , so home buyers now are paying smaller monthly mortgage payments than in the past. So an affordability ratio of 50 percent in the current environment certainly lessens the risk compared with 1997 when ratios were at 90 percent.

Although the property market in Hong Kong is still healthy, CLSA’s Wong believes that returns from the market are not really as much as many mainland investors may have expected.

She explained that if Guo rents the flat he bought for a hypothetical HK$12,000 a month, Guo would have to pay a total rent of HK$140,000 a year.

Minus the HK$28,000 interest rate from the total mortgage Guo pays to the bank in a year (according to Wong’s calculation, for a 12-month-mortgage the principal is around HK$87,000 and the interest rate is about HK$28,000), it leaves a total “gain” of HK$112,000 to Guo each year between buying the flat and renting the flat.

“But if we divide the home’s full amount of HK$3.25 million by the HK$112,000 he ‘earned’ every year, we found that the ‘return’ is only 3.25 percent, which is even lower than the Hui Xian Real Estate Investment Trust,” said Wong, who added that if home prices do start to fall, buying the home for investment purposes would mean it would trade for a loss.

The city’s home prices, according to Wong, are just too high to invest in for good returns.

She believes that renting a house, though hardly a cheap proposition these days, is a better choice as people would bear far less risk from a potential property bubble, and they could invest their down-payments in more profitable vehicles.

However, looking at it from the viewpoint of people from the mainland, Professional’s Lu said having a property is a very traditional notion in Chinese culture, and as long as they are capable of paying the down-payment and can afford the mortgage, they would still prefer to purchase property if they believe home prices will not drop off.

Bobby Wang, who is also originally from the mainland, studied at a local university starting in 2004 and now works as an analyst for an investment bank in the city.

Wang regrets having missed a chance to buy a well-maintained, 400 square foot second-hand flat near the house he rents in Western District, which was selling for only HK$2.5 million in early 2009 but is now priced at more than HK$4 million.

“If I stay in Hong Kong in the long-term, I will still consider buying a flat of my own irregardless of the price. Hong Kong’s home prices go up and down, and it will still swing higher some day even if it slumps. After all, it only depends on my real needs,” said Wang.

(HK Edition 06/24/2011 page2)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2011-06/24/content_12764339.htm

2011
06/24
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Analyst doubts correlation between HOS, price fluctuations

The potential resumption of the Home Ownership Scheme (HOS), which gives eligible low-income residents certain discount on purchasing a flat in Hong Kong, will not affect the city’s home prices, analysts said.

According to Albert Wong, deputy chairman of Midland Holdings, past experience shows that it was an imbalance of supply and demand in the city’s private residential stock rather than subsidized housing programs that led to price fluctuations in the property market.

“The negative viewpoint that the resumption of HOS will cause home prices to slump is not tenable as we believe its significance is neutral,” said Wong.

“On the contrary, the Hong Kong government, as the largest developer which holds a large number of subsidized housing (plots) in the city, could adjust the supply of new subsidized homes,” Wong told a media briefing on Tuesday.

According to data provided by the relevant official departments, during 1997 and 1999 when the city’s home prices started dropping from the previous peak in 1997, the Hong Kong government launched 63,000 subsidized flats while the developers launched 71,000.

However, the price slump didn’t stop between 2000 and 2002 even though the government had reduced the sales of subsidized residential flats by 19,000. Private home supply reached 74,000 during those three years, which led to a huge surplus in supply and a further decrease in home prices.

Wong said that unlike developers – who are very vulnerable to changes in the market value of homes and land banks – the Hong Kong government could take note of market trends and regulate supply and demand through the timely introduction of subsidized homes.

The government figures show that due to the dismal property market in the early 2000s, Hong Kong government suspended the sales of nearly 60,000 completed subsidized homes when they axed the HOS program in November 2002. Among these were 40,000 flats which were then converted into public rental flats and the rest were held back for later sales. The government put the HOS flats that had already been built back on the market in 2007. However, Wong admitted that the decision to stop the scheme had tremendous social costs.

A research report by Citigroup echoed the argument that there are no obvious correlations in Hong Kong history that the rise and fall of home prices were related to the development of HOS units.

But the possible resumption of the HOS will “have a bigger impact on investment sentiment, rather than the actual completions which should take place at least four years later if the Hong Kong government decides to resume (the scheme) in October”, according to the report, which was released on Monday.

Home prices may see a turning point if excessive HOS supply is announced with a concrete pipeline in mind, according to Citigroup. But due to the limited land banks available for subsidized homes, it expects the initial plan for the program to be less than 5,000 units per annum, which should have only a mild effect on market sentiment.

Simon Lynch, managing director of valuation and advisory at Cushman & Wakefield Asia-Pacific said he doesn’t believe the resumption of HOS will have much significant impact on reducing the housing market’s strength given it affects only a limited part of it.

“But the reintroduction should be welcomed as it enables the lower income sector to enter into the housing market. But home owners should keep in mind affordability based on interest rates, not now, but when they will inevitably rise, before making a decision to purchase for the long term,” Lynch told China Daily.

On Monday, Financial Secretary John Tsang said the government has taken note of people’s demand for homes and that Chief Executive Donald Tsang will reveal whether to resume the HOS program during his policy address in October.

The Hong Kong government has yet to reach a consensus on the matter as it is concerned with the impact on the whole market, as well as its feasibility in terms of land supply, some local reports said on Tuesday, citing unidentified government sources.

China Daily

(HK Edition 06/22/2011 page2)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2011-06/22/content_12748230.htm

2011
06/22
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CE to give HOS a second thought

CE to give HOS a second thought

An overview from The Peak of highrise buildings on Hong Kong Island. Chief Executive Donald Tsang will reveal whether the government will resume the suspended Home Ownership Scheme in his policy address in October. Mike Clarke / AFP

More studies on the way before a decision is made this October: John Tsang

The Hong Kong government said it will decide by October at the earliest whether to resume the Home Ownership Scheme (HOS) – a subsidized housing program which gives eligible low-income residents a chance to purchase flats at a discount of 30 to 40 percent to the market price.

The government has noticed people’s demand for homes and Chief Executive Donald Tsang will reveal whether to resume the suspended program in his policy address in October, Financial Secretary John Tsang said on Monday.

“Existing housing policies were all made under long debate in the government, and to restore the suspended housing scheme, it will need to study whether the social environment has changed,” John Tsang told reporters at a media briefing.

The HOS was instituted as part of the government policy for public housing in the 1970s with the first batch of flats made available in 1980.

However, the Hong Kong government halted the program in 2002, after the city’s home prices plunged substantially from the previous peak in 1997, and developers complained that the market was distorted by excessive unfair competition due to the scheme.

Rejecting calls to restore the HOS, the Chief Executive in his policy address last year has proposed an alternative My Home Purchase Plan, under which the government would build 5,000 “no frills” flats to accommodate prospective home-buyers in the so-called “sandwich class” – local families with incomes under HK$39,000, financial assets under HK$600,000 and those who have not owned property in the past 10 years.

Anthony Cheung, chairman of the Subsidized Housing Committee of the Hong Kong Housing Authority, said the resumption of HOS is expected to solve the livelihood issue caused by the overheating property market, but looking for land banks to build these subsidized homes will become another issue for the government to solve.

Stewart Leung, vice-chairman of the Executive Committee of the Real Estate Developers Association of Hong Kong, said the chamber and a majority of the members favor the reopening of the HOS program.

But, “I believe the government does not intend to break down the property market in Hong Kong”, Leung added.

Hong Kong’s property situation has become “abnormal” and risks in the market are still increasing, John Tsang wrote in his official blog on Sunday, adding that he is concerned about the risk of a property bubble in the city and has no hesitation in increasing the intensity of measures if necessary.

Hong Kong’s home prices have gained more than 70 percent since 2009, data from the Centaline Property Agency Ltd shows.

“Our housing policies aim to ensure a healthy and stable development of the property market, and these measures are ‘counter-cyclical’ macro and prudent ones,” John Tsang wrote in his blog.

Tao Dong, China economist at Credit Suisse, said on Monday that Hong Kong’s property market has showed signs of reaching its peak, and he expects housing prices to start sliding over the next three years.

“Amid a low interest-rate environment and inflows of hot money, the reconstruction of subsidized housing shows Hong Kong’s efforts in protecting the interests of vulnerable groups in the city,” said Tao.

China Daily

(HK Edition 06/21/2011 page2)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2011-06/21/content_12739564.htm

2011
06/21
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City property market overheating: S&P

City property market overheating: S

Ratings agency increases the possibility of a sharp correction

Hong Kong’s property market is overheating, raising the possibility of a sharp correction in prices, Standard & Poor’s said in its latest property outlook.

The city’s home prices have become unaffordable and the situation could weaken further if interest rates rise from their currently very low levels, S&P said in a report released on Wednesday.

The financial profiles of rated developers have improved since the downturn in 2008, and their credit profiles have a reasonably good buffer, particularly due to recurring rental income and increased geographic diversity, the ratings agency said.

However, increased expansion could moderate their financial positions and their profiles remain susceptible to volatility in the property market and increasingly higher land costs, according to the report.

It added that the current climate of strong liquidity could reverse because capital flows are fickle, and the city’s soaring property market is also vulnerable to external shocks due to its open economy and free capital movement.

The ratings agency nevertheless maintained its “stable” outlook on the city’s property sector due to Hong Kong’s prudential regulations which will “likely soften the impact of a property market correction” and Hong Kong banks’ tight underwriting standards.

The Hong Kong government has been “proactive” in introducing measures in the hope of stabilizing the city’s property market, Fu Bei, director of corporate ratings at S&P, said during a teleconference call on Wednesday.

Last week, the government announced plans to double its land sales in the quarter to September 30 in a bid to curb soaring home prices. On the same day, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority ordered local lenders to tighten down-payment ratios for home buyers – the fourth time it has done so in the past two years.

Although tightening mortgages may depress local investment demand, it will work less effectively on mainland investors as a big proportion of them do not even borrow money from banks, said Fu.

Hong Kong’s property transactions have fallen over the past six months after the government implemented a special duty to curb short-selling, but the city’s overall home prices have continued to rise, surpassing the historical peaks set in 1997, according to government figures.

S&P believes the risk of policy overreaction on purchase restrictions is still low, and forecast that the policy will continue to tighten until property prices soften.

Mainland buyers are increasingly important investors in Hong Kong, particularly of high-end residential properties, the report indicated.

“A reduction in investment demand, possibly due to the mainland’s economic and credit conditions, could set off a correction in the high-end property market with knock-on effects on mass-market prices,” said the S&P report.

According to Nicole Wong, regional head of property research at investment bank CLSA, mainland buyers now constitute almost 40 percent of all transactions in the city for launches of new residential projects worth HK$12 million or more per unit.

“The average home price in the city faces less risk of a reverse but it will grow at a more moderate pace in the next 12 to 18 months,” said Wong.

The S&P report also cut its outlook on the mainland property market to “negative” from “stable”, indicating the tighter credit and further central government curbs may lead to a ratings downgrade in the next year.

China Daily

(HK Edition 06/16/2011 page2)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2011-06/16/content_12707832.htm

2011
06/16
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Vitasoy posts profit despite rising costs

Full-year net up 9% to HK$284m

Vitasoy International Holdings Ltd, a Hong Kong-based producer of non-carbonated beverages, reported a moderate 9 percent growth in its full year net profit due to what it said were surging raw material costs.

The city’s biggest soy milk supplier on Tuesday said its net profit for the financial year ended March 31, 2011, rose to HK$284 million from HK$260 million during the previous year. Net sales revenue increased 11 percent to HK$3.33 billion from HK$3.01 billion in the previous year.

Shares of Vitasoy dropped HK$0.31 or 4.78 percent to HK$6.18 on Tuesday, compared with the 0.05 percent loss of the city’s benchmark Hang Seng Index.

“Vitasoy’s share price has been on a steady rise for some time over the past, but the slightly lower payout ratio compared with the previous years may dampen investors’ confidence in the short term,” said Mark To, head of research at Wing Fung Financial Group.

The group didn’t propose any special dividend this time round. Total dividends for the financial year ended in March stood at HK$18.30 cents, down HK$8.30 cents from HK$26.60 cents a year earlier.

A major challenge for Vitasoy, To noted, is that the rising cost pressure spurred by the increase in wages and cost of raw materials, however, will make it difficult for the company to fully pass on to consumers.

The gross profit margin was maintained at 50 percent amid escalating commodity prices and increasing operating costs, the group said.

Larry Eisentrager, group chief executive officer, said Vitasoy had raised its various product prices by 3 to 4 percent in local market, and 2 to 7 percent on the mainland last year, in a bid to maintain the profit margin at a relatively high level.

“And we are not ruling out the possibilities of further raising the prices this year,” Eisentrager told reporters during a media briefing, citing the impact of surging commodity prices and prevailing market conditions.

Reports last week said that Vitasoy’s labor union is demanding a 7 percent pay rise for the employees, or else they will go on strike.

The management team of the group declined to comment on the matter Tuesday, but only indicated that salaries are much less significant compared with raw materials including milk and sugar weighing much more heavily on their total costs.

Vitasoy products sell in more than 40 markets around the world. Hong Kong and Macao achieved almost half the group sales while the mainland, Australia and North America contributed the rest.

But in contrast to the lackluster performance in its home market – which only saw a 4 percent net sales growth in Hong Kong and Macao in 2010, sales on the mainland have increased by 17 percent during the period, despite capacity constraints in southern China. The brand also reported robust 28 percent sales growth last year in the Australia and New Zealand markets.

The group expects to further enhance capital expenditure in the following years from the HK$510 million in 2010-11, to lift its production capacity by 20 percent in Hong Kong, and double that on the mainland as well as in Australia in the next two or three years.

China Daily

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2011-06/15/content_12697448.htm

2011
06/15
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Midlevels luxury site sold for HK$11.65b

Midlevels luxury site sold for HK$11.65b

Midlevels luxury site sold for HK$11.65b

Sales price below estimates after restrictive measures and higher mortgage rates

The Hong Kong government sold a residential site in one of the city’s most exclusive areas below the estimates of surveyors after home sales fell over the past five months following restrictive government measures and higher mortgage rates.

During city’s third land sale of the fiscal year on Thursday, the luxury residential site on Borrett Road in the Midlevels district on Hong Kong Island was sold for HK$11.65 billion. Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd claimed the site after 42 rounds of bidding.

The price was equivalent to HK$26,763 per square foot, according to data provided by Centaline Property Agency Ltd.

However, it fell below the HK$12-15.2 billion range forecast by five analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires, as well as lagging the average HK$12.8 billion forecast polled by Reuters and the HK$13 billion median estimate polled by Bloomberg News.

Noting that it is still too early to conclude that the luxury home market in Hong Kong has peaked, James Cheung, director of Centaline Surveyors, said after the sale that the lackluster result reflected the fact that Hong Kong developers have become very cautious towards expensive land prices.

“Residential flats built on the site could be sold at more than HK$40,000 per square foot. Detached houses would even fetch HK$50,000 to HK$60,000 per square foot,” Cheung estimated.

Auctioneer G.M. Ross, deputy director of the Lands Department, said the land sales result “reflects the prevailing market condition.”

In a striking comparison, however, another piece of land at Ping Kwai Road in Yuen Long attracted fierce competition from developers.

After 160 rounds of aggressive bidding, the parcel in New Territories was sold for HK$300 million, equivalent to HK$4,587 per square foot.

The selling price was 2.3 times that of the opening bid of HK$130 million, which also beat the HK$220 million median forecast polled by Reuters.

“It doesn’t necessarily suggest that home prices in the New Territories will rise sharply in the coming years,” Louis Chan, managing director (residential) of Asia Pacific at Centaline Property Agency, told China Daily. He said it is the “thin size, low investment and fewer risks of the land piece” that aroused the zeal of developers towards the site.

However, Albert Wong, senior executive director at Midland Holdings, predicted that unit sales on the Yuen Long site will exceed HK$7,000 per square foot – close to the previous high in 1997 in the area when the city’s home prices peaked.

Wong added that luxury residential prices will rise at a faster pace than urban areas in the next two or three year. He said it is likely to grow about 20 percent a year, compared with a 10 percent annual price gain on Hong Kong Island.

To cool down the city’s overheating property market, the Hong Kong government has vowed to boost land supply this year. It will in total sell 12 sites in the second quarter, among which nine will be for residential development.

On May 12, the government sold three residential sites located on Hong Kong Island, Kowloon and the New Territories. All these sites fetched high prices despite a series of government measures aimed at cooling the market.

China Daily

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hkedition/2011-06/10/content_12669058.htm

2011
06/10
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